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Tuesday, July 20, 2004

ASSESSING THE SITUATION

The color-coded maps on the right were generated in a program created by Adam Zaius, in his quest to assess the value of land on the continent Second Life, based on a complex formula of variables.

"Top number is the value of the sim," Adam says, explaining the key to me in Instant Message. "Next under it is the recommended value in L$ per square meters. Brighter [color] means the sim has a higher value." He goes on to warn me that these should "be taken with a grain of salt", since "I make no claim as to the overall accuracy of the outputted information at this stage... However, it should provide a good base estimate."

The screenshots depicted here were taken from a few days ago-- Adam advises NWN readers to look at these, instead of going directly to the server address which generates the most up-to-date map. "I dont want that server turning into a molten pile," he warns. "The map generation takes the thing to 100% CPU load for a few seconds each hit."

The information for these calculations are dynamically taken in-world by a cube-shaped spider, says Zaius, "which collects the required data, then deletes itself... [then] e-mails all the collected data to a certain address, which a program I have written processes." The data is run through an off-world server, and in real time, you wind up with a thumbnail estimate for how much land in each server should currently sell for.

Pressed for more details, Adam tells me the formula he uses to calculate this ballpark sum, and offers some observations and advice, on current land speculation.

"The value is devised from a series of factors," Adam says. "Specifically:

- Proximity of land to nearest telehub (if there are multiple telehubs within the proximity, a bonus is added, an additional bonus for this factor is also given for proximity to the Ahern Welcome Area) [Where new users-- and presumably, new customers and audience members-- first enter the world.]

- Number of allowable prims in the sim (the city sim, Luna, Oak Grove, are all given bonuses for having more than 15000 allowable prims.)

- Rating of the sim (Mature tends to be 'worth' more.)

- Number of visitors per day (averaged over rolling last three recorded days)

- Percentage of sim water (deviation from 20% is a penalty after +/- 10%. Being within the 'sweet spot' generates a bonus)

- Land distortion (flat land is considered 'worth' more.) [Flat land, Adam expands later, 'Makes terraforming to build a standard structure a lot easier. I'm just making observations based on what tends to sell well, then documenting it.']

- Average sim Frames Per Second (less than 300 results in serious penalty, more than 300 results in a bonus) [Higher FPS means smoother animation and clearer graphics.]

- Lease Period (if applicable; Luna has a two month lease period, which drastically lowers the land value)

- Average value of retail sales (not highly influencial, +/- L$3/square meters maximum maximum)

- Base value of land (L$3/sqm)

"The exact formula I'm using at the moment," says Adam, "is:

Value = telehub*7 + rating*3 + ((fps - 300)/300) + (((prims - 15000)/15000)*10) - ((4-lease)*13) + percent_flat + ((percent_water - 20)/4) + (average_sales/total_sales) + base_value

"However, I'm refining it, and trying to feed in more data, to get it more exact... I'm working on [factoring in] the average citizen join-date for a sim, [since] sims with more older players tend to move towards being higher quality."

The estimate, Adam adds, "does not provide details for particular plots; rather, an average of the entire sim." Nor does it take into account subjective value (for example, the amount a landowner is willing to pay for property which adjoins their home estate.) "Currently, I'm working with the Linden Lab published figure of in-world land sales, which [gives] the average to be L$16.59/square meter (source: http://secondlife.com/land/). However I'm not going to standardize to that figure, until I have data on each of the 145 sim entries in the database."

Of course, Zaius says, this estimate doesn't always jibe with the market as it exists now. "Boardman, by prediction, should technically be the cheapest land available, and all factors do point to this. However, a variety of people have held all the available land [in Boardman] and are using the scarcity to attempt to sell at twice the predicted value (L$5.00/square meter-- [instead] selling at L$9-10/sqm). However, this land [in Boardman] has not sold in the last few months, so [this] may be indicative that the market will not buy at that rate.

"Due to the popularity of the sim... Federal is the most expensive land that can be bought, predicting sales at L$39.00/sqm. The second highest is the city sim Sistiana (L$34.00/sqm). However it is on 'the way up', and I expect it to overtake Federal, as it maintains twice the framerate, has rising popularity, and has twice the prim multiplier."

His take on current trends? "Prices are rising, which is good for older players, but 'very bad' for newer players. However, this market is probably going to stablize (I.E., crash, then fall down to a normal level) as more land becomes available faster. (Something that started occuring recently, and probably will accelerate soon, based on the number of new sims that [Linden Lab] recently purchased [~100])."

His advise for new players, looking to buy land now? "I'd probably suggest waiting about a week before making any purchases, for two reasons; The snow sims are going up at the start of this week, and they look awesome, and the auctions are now proceeding at twice the rate now, which means the established 'barons' will most likely be forced to lower their rates somewhat, due to the glut of new land, that will [soon] be available." (By "snow sims", he means the always-winter sims Linden Lab releases this week.)

As fascinating as all this is, New World Notes makes no endorsement or criticism of Zaius' assessments, and for the residents who would use them, when making purchases, caveat emptor. What is certainly true, however, is that calculations like his are inevitable, with so much land emerging into the world so quickly, and garnering so much demand, when they do. Since land was first put up for auction, at the beginning of this year, the maximum bid price for an entire simulator of 65,000 square meters has held at US$900-$1200. Recent bids, however, have seen lease rights go for US$1216, for just 9952 square meters, and US$990.00, for 12576 square meters.

Also take into account Zaius' intentions for creating the program-- to create a secondary non-Linden auction system, for land already owned. "[T]he direct use I have for this system will be with the TerraBarter land auctioning system I plan to finish implementing soon," he says, "which will both use the data to moderate sale prices (such as provide an estimate of the worth to both buyers, and sellers), as well as be used to moderate the index to produce more accurate results (such as scaling sales globally to match any rise/decline in global land sales, as well as adjusting individual factors)."

And if you've read this far, you might want to see the program in action. Keeping in mind the CPU cost it exerts on Zaius' own server-- it's at http://titus.piracy.biz/ovend/land_index.php. (In other words, try to hit it during off hours.)

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Comments

Shiny. :)

Just an additional note I may add, sims with a value of L$1/m, or white text have no data associated with them, rather than actually being worth that much. (minimum is L$3/m so far.)

:)

-Adam

Posted by: Adam Zaius at Jul 21, 2004 7:59:04 AM

Additional to my previous comment: I'm looking for people to help out with inputting more data into this, some of it, such as proximity to telehub, or mature/pg rating are not accessible by script, and need to be obtained manually. I'm also looking for some people to host the prims which collect the data on a more permenent basis. :)

-Adam

Posted by: Adam Zaius at Jul 21, 2004 8:00:35 AM

Interesting, but you are missing a few key factors in land value. Terraforming is +/- 20m in the old sims, where it is +/- 4 in the new. This *should* increase land a great deal due to being able to make mountains or water if you wanted. Also, I would coniser factoring in "Linden Picks" into the formula, having a linden top pick is obviously going to draw more people to the sim.

Posted by: Vade Blair at Jul 21, 2004 8:08:34 PM

Thats very impressive!

Perhaps Zaius should consider automating this to calculate each half hour and then serve the same image each time.

Alf

Posted by: Alfa Rubio at Jul 22, 2004 12:01:55 AM

Heya, I've adjusted the url for this; the old url posted will soon become invalid, in favour of maps.secondserver.net (which will go live in a few days.)

-Adam

Posted by: Adam Zaius at Jul 24, 2004 5:19:34 AM

Nice work, Adam.

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